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26 Sep 2023

EUR/JPY aims to recapture 158.00 as BoJ Ueda continues to favor easy monetary policy

  • EUR/JPY eyes 158.00 as BoJ Ueda expects a 2% inflation achievement far from sight.
  • A moderate rise in inflation backed by wage growth would be the real victory for the BoJ.
  • The ECB vowed to keep interest rates sufficiently high for a longer period until the achievement of price stability.

The EUR/JPY pair comes out of the woods and aims to recapture the crucial resistance of 158.00 in the London session. The cross attracts bids as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda expects an achievement of comfortable 2% inflation is still out of sight.

BoJ Ueda cited that Japan's economy is at a critical stage on whether it can achieve a positive wage-inflation cycle. A moderate rise in inflation backed by wage growth would be a real victory for the central bank. Kazuo Ueda is worried about a slow pick-up in the Chinese economy as it could lead to a slowdown in the overall Asian economy.

The BoJ is expected to keep a dovish policy stance further, therefore, the odds of a potential intervention by the Japanese central bank in the FX moves are high.

Meanwhile, the Euro is expected to remain strong as the European Central Bank (ECB) vowed to keep interest rates sufficiently high for a longer period until the achievement of price stability. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that despite progress on inflation it is seen too high for too long as the labor market has so far remained resilient.

About the interest rate outlook, ECB policymaker Madis Muller said on Tuesday, “As things stand, not expecting any more rate hikes.” Last week, ECB Muller cited that higher inflation could yet warrant another rate hike.

This week, investors will keenly focus on the Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for September. The headline and core inflation are seen softening to 4.5% and 4.8% respectively. Decelerating inflation data despite rising energy prices may provide some relief for ECB policymakers.

 

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