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20 May 2013

Sterling 1.5200

Sterling holds onto the 1.52 handle

The pound managed a weekly close below the handle 1.52. The market has been expecting a test of lower levels, but support at 1.5160 has held and cable still trades around the handle 1.52.

With some of the Europeans out, the market is set to pick up later this week with key data and speakers taking the stage. A close below 1.52 handle today will lead the market into anticipation of the data and decisive moves for a new lower range on dollar positive outcomes for the pair. Sights could be for the April lows 1.5034. Supply would be expected above 1.5220 with buying interests likely in the 1.5158 areas still, until the data releases that will follow this week.

For the calendar this week, Sterling will be reacting to BoE minutes on Ma 22nd. The latest inflation report from King gave some signs of an improvement in the UK economy, much of which is likely to be priced into the pound, and the minutes may offer further positive comments, reassuring the bulls. However, the pair may come under further pressure should comments divulge any weaknesses going forward. Other key data coming up kicks off tomorrow with CPI and GDP/ Retails Sales on Thursday.
May 20, 2013

Flash: EUR breakup risks palpably rising – BMO Capital Markets

According to Stephen Gallo at BMO Capital Markets, “The EUR break-up risks are still rising despite the fact that break-up risk premia are not being factored “into the price” in any major way: be it the CDS market, the bond market, the EUR, or the share prices of European financial institutions.”
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May 20, 2013

US Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.53 vs -0.23 in Mar

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