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7 Jul 2023

EUR/GBP clears daily losses, still poised for a weekly loss

  • The EUR/GBP traded in the 0.8554-0.8521 and is set to close a 0.50% weekly loss on Friday.
  • Lower British yields weakened the made it difficult for the Sterling to find demand.
  • Eyes on German Inflation and British labour market data next week.

On Friday, the EUR/GBP traded with losses falling to a low of 0.8521 and then settling around 0.8545. The Eurozone’s and British calendars had nothing relevant to offer, and the focus is next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany and labour market data from the UK.

During the session, the GBP weakened on failing British yields. The 2-year yield, after jumping on Thursday to multi-year highs, declined by more than 2% to 5.37%, while the 5 and 10-year rates also decreased, to 4.84% and 4.65%, respectively. 

The British bond market may see volatility next Tuesday when crucial labour market data will be released. The Claimant Count Change and the Average Earnings data are closely monitored by the Bank of England when deciding its monetary policy. As for now, markets are largely discounting a 50 basis point (bps) for the August 3 meeting, followed by another 0.5% hike in September 21.

On the other hand, investors are pricing a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in July, and another one in September is nearly 60% discounted. That said, CPI figures from Germany from next week will continue modelling the expectations regarding the ECB’s next steps.


 EUR/GBP Levels to watch

According to the daily chart,  despite indicators turning flat, the EUR/GBP’s outlook is still tilted to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands neutral in negative territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints lower green bars, indicating a fading upwards momentum.

Support Levels: 0.8520, 0.8490,0.8450.
Resistance Levels: 0.8560, 0.8571 (20-day Simple Moving Average), 0.8595.

 

EUR/GBP Daily chart

 

 

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