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7 Jul 2023

USD/TRY remains sideways around 26.00 ahead of US NFP

  • USD/TRY is oscillating around 26.00 as the focus shifts to US NFP data.
  • US equities were heavily sold after the resilient US ADP Employment report drummed up more interest rate hikes from the Fed.
  • Turkiye inflation decelerated marginally in June.

The USD/TRY pair is demonstrating a non-directional performance around 26.00 in the late Asian session. The asset is expected to continue its lackluster performance as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

S&P500 futures have shown a choppy performance in Asia. US equities were heavily sold on Thursday after the resilient US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment report drummed up more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The overall market mood is quite negative as one more interest rate hike from the Fed cannot be ruled out.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped sharply to near 103.00 despite a hawkish interest rate outlook. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June. As per the consensus, the US labor market was added with 225K vs. the former release of 339K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 3.6% against the prior release of 3.7%.

Apart from that, monthly Average Hourly Earnings are seen steady at 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the economic data is expected to decline marginally to 4.2% than 4.3% released earlier. Upbeat earnings would portray that inflationary pressure could propel further and discussions for rate cuts by the Fed would postpone further.

On the Turkish Lira front, inflationary pressures softened in June. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a pace of 3.92% while the street was anticipating a higher pace of 4.84%. In May, the CPI landed at 4.0%. On an annualized basis, CPI decelerated to 38.21% vs. the estimates of 39.47% and the prior figure of 39.59%.

 

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Ex-BoJ’s Kameda: Japanese central bank may hold off YCC tweak in July

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