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4 May 2023

EUR/USD to accelerate through 1.11 – SocGen

Economists at Société Générale discuss the European Central Bbank (ECB) interest rate decision and its implications for the EUR/USD pair.

Hawkish 25 bps or dovish 50 bps?

“Our house call was for the ECB to hike by 50 bps, but the combo of below-forecast 1Q GDP growth (0.1% QoQ), a decline in core inflation to 5.6% in April (services up 0.1pp), tightening in ECB bank lending conditions and lower demand for loans tilted the scales in favour of a (hawkish) 25 bps.”

“Guidance in the statement and by President Lagarde that the tightening cycle is not over in theory should be conducive to the EUR/USD overcoming the April high of 1.1095 and having a go at 1.11 when the large option expiry rolls off and delta hedging flows subside.”

“Upside for rates could be limited if investors opt for the safety of govies and receiving in swaps in the face of banking and debt ceiling jitters in the US.”

May 4, 2023

AUD/USD flat-lines above mid-0.6600s amid modest USD bounce, downside remains cushioned

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and attracts some selling near the 0.6700 round-figure mark on Thursday. Spot p

There is a risk that the hawkish ECB sends EUR/USD through 1.1100 – ING

EUR/USD remains close to the highs of the year. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Positio