Lagarde Speech Preview: All about ECB press conference

• Christine Lagarde to hold key press conference on Thursday.
• European Central Bank expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, but 50 bps not out of question.
• Q&A section of speech will be important to determine ECB hawkish or dovish tone.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), will hold a press conference on Thursday, May 4 at 12:45 GMT, 30 minutes after the publication of the ECB monetary policy decision statement. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, but the possibility of a 50-bps rate hike is not out of the table.

You can follow the ECB press conference, with Christine Lagarde’s speech, in the following video:

The Q&A session by Christine Lagarde will be key to shaping the market reaction. The expected 25 basis point rate hike could be accompanied by hawkish remarks from the ECB president, while a surprising 50-bps raise might come with some dovish comments by Lagarde. Matías Salord, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, details both scenarios:

There could be a hawkish 25 bps hike or a dovish 50 bps hike. A new rate hike decision will likely be unanimous, but policymakers will probably differ on the magnitude. (...) A 50 bps hike should boost the Euro sharply across the board, while a 25 bps hike could have a mixed impact, depending on what the statement says. The net outcome will depend on the size of the hike and also on what the ECB sees going forward. A cautious hawkish explicit forward guidance seems a likely scenario, which should keep the Euro supported in the short term. A more cautious approach, on the contrary, could weaken the common currency.

The ECB has been raising interest rates in the past months, since the summer of 2022, lifting the main operations rate from 0% to the current 3.5%. In the previous press conference in March, Lagarde notoriously wore an owl pin on her jacket, a metaphor as a way to distance herself from both the hawkish or dovish camps.  

How Lagarde and her colleagues on the policy board operate this time around will be crucial to the market reaction, particularly for the Euro. 

About Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).