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4 May 2023

NZD/USD refreshes day high at 0.6230 as US banking woes renewed, US NFP eyed

  • NZD/USD has printed a fresh day's high at 0.6225 as fears of a US banking fiasco renewed.
  • Rising expectations that the Fed has reached its terminal rate have weighed heavily on US Treasury yields.
  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to jump to 50.3 from the former release of 50.0.

The NZD/USD pair has refreshed its day’s high at 0.6225 in the Asian session. The upside bias for the Kiwi asset is solid amid consideration of a neutral policy stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed) from its June monetary policy.

S&P500 futures have trimmed some losses posted in early Asia, indicating some recovery in the risk appetite of the market participants, however, the overall market mood carries caution. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has displayed some defense after testing Wednesday’s low of 101.07. Rising expectations that the Fed has reached its terminal rate, for the time being, have weighed heavily on US Treasury yields. The yields offered on 10-year US Treasury bonds have dropped to 3.33%.

As per the CME Fedwatch tool, more than 17% of investors are anticipating a rate cut in June monetary policy. The anticipation of a rate cut by Fed chair Jerome Powell has stemmed US banking woes have renewed. Bloomberg reported that PacWest Bancorp is considering strategic options, including a potential sale.

Apart from that, Fed Powell cited that recession will be mild in case it happens, which conveys that the growth rate is expected to squeeze further. Also, Manufacturing PMI has consistently contracted for the past six months amid under-utilization of overall capacity by firms amid bleak economic outlook.

On the New Zealand Dollar front, investors are awaiting the release of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. As per the consensus, the economic data is expected to jump to 50.3 from the former release of 50.0. It is worth noting that New Zealand is one of the leading trading partners of China and higher manufacturing activities in China will support the New Zealand Dollar.

 

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