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5 Jan 2023

AUD/USD rallies above the 200-DMA at around 0.6830 post-hawkish Fed minutes

  • The Australian economic calendar eyes the release of the Services PMI.
  • US Federal Reserve policymakers are not projecting any rate cuts in 2023.
  • Chinese authorities lifting a ban on Australian coal could underpin the AUD/USD.

The AUD/USD erased Tuesday’s losses and climbed above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bolstered by China’s news lifting an import ban on Australia’s coal. Also, a tranche of US economic data and the release of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes failed to propel the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.6840 after diving to a daily low of 0.6716.

AUD/USD climbed above the 200-day EMA

The US stock market closed Wednesday with solid gains. According to the last monetary policy meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve, policymakers do not expect to cut rates in 2023. Fed officials added that slowing the pace of rate hikes is “weakening commitment to achieving price stability on that inflation is already on a persistent downward path.” They said that inflation could be more persistent.

Aside from this, earlier, the December US ISM Manufacturing PMI came below estimates for the second consecutive month at 48.4 vs. estimates of 48.5. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed JOLTs Opening for November jumped more than estimates of 10M, came at 10.458M, while October figures were upward revised.

In the Fedspeak front, Minnesota’s Fed President Neil Kashkari said that it would be appropriate to continue to hike rates “at least at the next few meetings” until inflation has peaked and foresees the Federal Funds rate (FFR) at 5.4%. He added that the Fed must avoid cutting the policy rate prematurely and would consider cutting only when it’s convinced inflation is on its way back down to 2%.

Aside from this, Chinese authorities are planning to resume imports from Australian coal following a two-year ban as relations between both parties improved. Therefore, the commodity-linked Australian Dollar (AUD) got bolstered, and the AUD/USD rallied sharply toward fresh three-week highs of 0.6835.

Ahead of Thursday’s Asian session, the Australia economic docket will feature Australian Services PMI alongside Caixin Services PMI for China. On the US front, the calendar will reveal the Trade Balance alongside the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on December 31.

AUD/USD Key Technical Levels

 

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