NZD/USD plunges beneath 0.6400 amidst risk-off and mixed US data

• Slightly negative US economic data bolstered the US Dollar amidst risk aversion.
• US Retail Sales plunged, while unemployment claims continued to show a resilient labor market.
• NZD/USD Price Analysis: Undergoing a pullback but a daily close below 0.6400, traders could expect downward pressure.

The New Zeland Dollar (NZD) dropped sharply against the US Dollar (USD) after a central bank bonanza witnessed 50 bps rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB), in the last couple of days. Most policymakers coincide with inflation being too high, opening the door for further tightening. Therefore, the NZD/USD plummets more than 1.81%, trading at 0.6347 after hitting a daily high of 0.6443.

US Dollar rises amidst a tranche of negative US data

Wall Street is set to finish the day with losses. Economic data from the United States (US) showed signs that Fed’s policy is being felt by Americans, as November Retail Sales shrank 0.6% MoM vs. estimates of 0.1% contraction, reported the US Department of Commerce. At the same time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed the Initial Jobless Claims for the last week dropped by 211K against estimates of a 232K rise, showing the labor market resilience, despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to cool down inflation.

Further data showed that the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the New York Fed Manufacturing Index missed estimates, further deepening their contraction to -13.8 and -11.2, respectively. Later, Industrial Production (IP) shrank by 0.2% MoM, below expectations for a 0.1% increase.

Aside from this, the New Zealand economic docket featured the Manufacturing PMI for November, which fell to 47.4 below October’s 49.3 print. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s GDP data for Q3 revealed a remarkable growth of 2.0%, far surpassing expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which had anticipated only a 0.8% expansion. This was an upward revision on the prior quarter’s revised 1.9%.

Given the backdrop, the NZD/USD extended its losses, as bad news for the US economy might dent sentiment, augmenting appetite for the greenback. Therefore, the NZD/USD ongoing correction could drop toward the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6293 before resuming upwards.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The NZD/USD daily chart portrays a drop below 0.6400, registering a new six-day low. It should be said that the fall halted around 0.6319 before tumbling to the 20-day EMA at 0.6293, which, once cleared, could have exposed the 200-day EMA at 0.6249. However, if the NZD/USD fails to reclaim 0.6400, that could open the door for further losses. Otherwise, once 0.6400 is reclaimed, the next resistance would be the 0.6500 mark, ahead of the December 13 swing high at 0.6515.