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GBPUSD struggles near daily low, seems vulnerable near 1.1800 post-UK Autumn Statement

  • GBPUSD comes under heavy selling pressure and is weighed down by a combination of factors.
  • A goodish pickup in the US bond yields, the risk-off mood revive demand for the safe-haven USD.
  • A gloomy outlook for the UK economy undermines the GBP and contributes to the intraday slide.

The GBPUSD pair meets with a fresh supply following an early uptick to the 1.1955-1.1960 region and the intraday selling picks up pace during the mid-European session. The pair is currently flirting with the daily low, with bears now awaiting a sustained break below the 1.1800 round figure mar.

The initial leg of the intraday downfall was sponsored by the emergence of some buying around the US Dollar, which is drawing some support from a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. The British Pound, on the other hand, weakens across the board after UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt presents the Autumn Budget to the Parliament. The combination of the aforementioned factors exerts downward pressure on the GBPUSD pair.

Wednesday's upbeat US Retail Sales data forces market participants to scale back their bets for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, the US central bank is expected to hike interest rates by a relatively smaller 50 bps at the next meeting in December. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the US bond yields, which, along with a generally weaker risk tone, offers some support to the safe-haven USD.

The GBP bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unimpressed by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's £55 billion fiscal plan. Adding to this, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says that the economy is already in a recession. The OBR now expects the UK GDP to slump by 1.4% next year as compared to a projection for growth of 1.8% in the previous outlook published in March. This is seen as another factor weighing on the Sterling Pound.

With the latest leg down, spot prices have now retreated over 225 pips from a nearly two-month high touched earlier this week and seem vulnerable to depreciating further. Next on tap is the US economic docket, featuring the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Apart from this, speeches by a slew of influential FOMC members, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the GBPUSD pair.

Technical levels to watch

 

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